Will there be legal consequences for Peter Murrell's involvement in the Scottish National Party's financial irregularities?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
77%
Likely
Yes

Question description

On the 5th of April 2023, Peter Murrell was taken into police custody by Police Scotland after an investigation into the Scottish National Party's (SNP) finances.

Murrell was the Scottish National Party (SNP) Chief Executive from 1999 to 2023, having [resigned from the role](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65000606 the 18th of March) after controversy regarding the SNP membership figures from which he subsequently admitted to misleading the Scottish public.

The investigation and subsequent arrest stems from complaints made regarding the alleged mis-use of fundraising donations made to the party totalling over £600,000.

Murrell has been married to Nicola Sturgeon (the ex-First Minister & Leader of the SNP and current MSP for Glasgow Southside) since 2010. Sturgeon recently announced her resignation on the 14th of February 2023 and was replaced by Humza Yousaf on the 29th of March. Their home (as well as the SNP headquarters in Edinburgh) was searched in connection to the investigation and arrest of Murrell.

Important Note to Forecasters in the UK

Police Scotland says the following:

The matter remains active for the purposes of the Contempt of Court Act 1981 and the public are therefore advised to exercise caution if discussing it on social media.

According to the UK government:

If you’re found to be in contempt of court, you could go to prison for up to 2 years, get a fine, or both.

. . .

You might be in contempt of court if you speak publicly or post on social media.

For example, you should not:

  • say whether you think a person is guilty or innocent
  • refer to someone’s previous convictions
  • name someone the judge has allowed to be anonymous, even if you did not know this
  • name victims, witnesses and offenders under 18
  • name sex crime victims
  • share any evidence or facts about a case that the judge has said cannot be made public

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts59

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Resizable preview:
77%
Likely

On the 5th of April 2023, Peter Murrell was taken into police custody by Police Scotland after an investigation into the Scottish National Party's (SNP) finances.

Murrell was the Scottish National Party (SNP) Chief Executive from 1999 to 2023,...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 59

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