Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

Metaculus
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Yes

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Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by humanity and the primary driver of climate change, as of 2016. Our World In Data estimated that in 2016 CO2 made up 74% of humanity's total greenhouse gas emissions (when weighting each greenhouse gas by the amount of warming they cause over 100 years).

<iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe>

In November 2021, Climate Action Tracker forecasted the future amount of greenhouse gas emissions and warming anomaly under different scenarios:

<img src="https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT-2100WarmingProjectionsGraph-PNG-2021.11.original.png">

Note that this graph includes other greenhouse gases in CO2 equivalents and includes land use change. It also has no scenarios where current government pledges are substantially weakened or strengthened.

The US Energy Information Agency forecasted in October 2021 (assuming current technology and policy trends continue) that global energy-related CO2 emissions would increase through 2050.

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Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by humanity and the primary driver of climate change, as of 2016. Our World In Data estimated that in 2016 CO2 made up 74% of humanity's total greenhouse gas emissions (when weighting each...

Last updated: 2024-02-23
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 39

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