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Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
79%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups <a href="https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/">Giving What We Can</a> and <a href="https://www.givewell.org/">Givewell</a>.

Since then, <a href="https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things">around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes</a> to the world’s most effective charities, <a href=" https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0">thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world</a>. Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively<a href=" http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/"> donate around $5-10M each year</a>, has resulted in $170 million+ moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, <a href=" https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants">which has made around $600M of charitable grants</a>.

Effective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts208

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Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?
79%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups <a...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 208

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