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Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Metaculus
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60%
About Even
Yes

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At Berkshire Hathaway's 2021 annual shareholders' meeting, Warren Buffett famously highlighted the importance of understanding the uncertainty around individual stocks by comparing the top 20 global stocks in 1989 to those in 2021. Buffett emphasized that none of the companies on the 1989 list were present on the 2021 list at the time of the meeting. The 1989 list featured a heavy concentration of Japanese companies, reflecting the strong performance of the Japanese economy at that time. In contrast, the list from 2021 revealed a significant shift towards technology and innovation, with companies like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Amazon dominating the rankings. Below is the list of the top 20 companies worldwide by market cap in 1989.

| Ranking | Company | Market Cap | Country | ||-|--|--| | 1 | Industrial Bank of Japan| 104.29 B | 🇯🇵 Japan | | 2 | Sumitomo Bank | 73.30 B | 🇯🇵 Japan | | 3 | Fuji Bank | 69.40 B | 🇯🇵 Japan | | 4 | Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank | 64.04 B | 🇯🇵 Japan | | 5 | Exxon Corp | 63.84 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 6 | General Electric USA | 58.19 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 7 | Tokyo Electric Power | 56.50 B | 🇯🇵 Japan | | 8 | IBM Corp | 55.66 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 9 | Toyota Motor Corp. | 53.25 B | 🇯🇵 Japan | | 10 | American Tel & Tel | 48.95 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 11 | Nomura Securities | 46.81 B | 🇯🇵 Japan | | 12 | Royal Dutch Petroleum | 41.00 B | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | | 13 | Philip Morris Cos | 38.58 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 14 | Nippon Steel | 36.59 B | 🇯🇵 Japan | | 15 | Tokai Bank | 35.35 B | 🇯🇵 Japan | | 16 | Mitsui Bank | 34.99 B | 🇯🇵 Japan | | 17 | Matsushita Elect Ind'l | 33.36 B | 🇯🇵 Japan | | 18 | Kansai Electric Power | 33.13 B | 🇯🇵 Japan | | 19 | Hitachi LTD | 32.21 B | 🇯🇵 Japan | | 20 | Merck & Co | 30.75 B | 🇺🇸 USA

It remains an open question whether this pattern will repeat over the next decades. In 2023, the top companies in the world include a diverse mix of industries, with a very heavy country-focus on the USA. Technology giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Amazon continue to dominate, with other sectors like healthcare and finance also represented. As of April 2023, the following companies are in the top 20:

| Ranking | Name | Market Cap | Country | ||--||--| | 1 | Apple | $2.613 T | 🇺🇸 USA | | 2 | Microsoft | $2.129 T | 🇺🇸 USA | | 3 | Saudi Aramco | $1.926 T | 🇸🇦 S. Arabia | | 4 | Alphabet (Google) | $1.396 T | 🇺🇸 USA | | 5 | Amazon | $1.050 T | 🇺🇸 USA | | 6 | Berkshire Hathaway | $706.28 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 7 | NVIDIA | $660.92 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 8 | Tesla | $586.32 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 9 | Meta Platforms (Facebook)| $574.24 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 10 | Johnson & Johnson | $517.39 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 11 | Visa | $491.86 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 12 | LVMH | $491.42 B | 🇫🇷 France | | 13 | UnitedHealth | $477.42 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 14 | Exxon Mobil | $472.43 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 15 | TSMC | $452.22 B | 🇹🇼 Taiwan | | 16 | Tencent | $438.67 B | 🇨🇳 China | | 17 | JPMorgan Chase | $406.68 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 18 | Walmart | $400.25 B | 🇺🇸 USA | | 19 | Novo Nordisk | $379.17 B | 🇩🇰 Denmark | | 20 | Eli Lilly | $356.87 B | 🇺🇸 USA |

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Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?
60%
About Even
Last updated: 2024-10-07

At Berkshire Hathaway's 2021 annual shareholders' meeting, Warren Buffett famously highlighted the importance of understanding the uncertainty around individual stocks by comparing the top 20 global stocks in 1989 to those in 2021. Buffett emphasized...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 67

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