Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?

Metaculus
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27%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.

However, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.

In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including vaginas, urethras, and bladders, but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs and functional human “mini-kidneys” capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.

Before Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?

All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.

For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.

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27%
Unlikely

More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 357

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