Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
27%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Dedollarisation refers to the process of reducing reliance on the US dollar for various purposes, such as trading commodities, holding forex reserves, establishing bilateral trade agreements, and using dollar-denominated assets. This phenomenon has been occurring globally as countries seek alternatives to the US dollar. Examples include China, which has been gradually shifting from the dollar to the yuan for trade, and Russia, which has been pursuing dedollarisation since 2014.

One way to assess dedollarisation is via looking at the most active currencies for global payments (by value). The most likely currency to lead such a charge is the Chinese yuan (CNY), which has been touted as an alternative to the US dollar in light of broad Western sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. In February 2023, CNY held its position as the fifth most active global payments currency by value, with a 2.19% share. It ranks behind the USD (41.10%), the EUR (36.43%), the GBP (6.58%), and the JPY (2.98%).

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts47

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27%
Unlikely

Dedollarisation refers to the process of reducing reliance on the US dollar for various purposes, such as trading commodities, holding forex reserves, establishing bilateral trade agreements, and using dollar-denominated assets. This phenomenon has...

Last updated: 2024-06-17
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 47

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