Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?

Metaculus
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80%
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Yes

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My thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for inspiring this question.

The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.

It hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data here).

Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?

This question will resolve as Yes if the US' Labor Force Participation rate for the calendar year 2023 is lower than 2018, according to the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID LNS11300000. The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.

If the rates are the same (within 0.1 percentage points), this question will resolve as ambiguous.

If BLS do not report data for the entire year 2023, this question wil resolve as ambiguous.

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My thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for inspiring this question.

The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes...

Last updated: 2023-01-29
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 286

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