Also see the companion question: Will China perform large-scale forced reproduction before 2051?
In 1980, the government of China implemented the one-child policy in an effort to curb overpopulation. The policy worked perhaps too well for the government's liking, as in August 2021 all fines were removed and Chinese couples were permitted to have as many children as they liked. The reason for this is China's total fertility rate falling to 1.08 in 2022.
A prominent health official in Beijing has called for "bold steps" to reverse this trend. The New York Times has begun speculating on how the Chinese government might reverse the trend as well. Fearing a situation like this, the government of the Socialist Republic of Romania issued Decree 770 in 1967, banning abortion and contraception in almost all cases. It led to the doubling of the Romanian TFR from 1.9 to 3.7 in just a single year, with the TFR remaining above 2 until the decree was abolished following the Romanian Revolution in 1989.
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 63 |
Also see the companion question: Will China perform large-scale forced reproduction before 2051?
In 1980, the government of China implemented the one-child policy in an effort to curb overpopulation. The policy worked perhaps too well for the...
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