When will concern about artificial intelligence go mainstream in the United States?
Question description
Research and polling firm Gallup conducts a longstanding survey of American attitudes towards important problems in the United States. It includes the following question:
What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?
In a recent tweet, Nate Silver recommended monitoring this poll as a way to track whether concerns about AI have gone mainstream in the United States.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">One poll I'd watch instead is the Gallup survey asking people about their most important issue. Currently, AI is at <<1%. If that category starts to get a pulse, i.e. even polling at 1-2% (climate change = 3-4%), a sign concern has gone mainstream.<a href="https://t.co/UdQsAjCjtT">https://t.co/UdQsAjCjtT</a> <a href="https://t.co/2sagvHOsGQ">pic.twitter.com/2sagvHOsGQ</a></p>— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1644031598646423571?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 6, 2023</a></blockquote>Even issues that receive widespread press coverage, such a gun control, police brutality, drugs, taxes, and abortion do not consistently poll at 2% or above in this poll.
|Problem|Mar-2023|Feb-2023|Jan-2023|Dec-2022|Oct-2022|Sep-2022|Aug-2022| ||||||||| |ECONOMIC PROBLEMS (NET)|33%|35%|34%|40%|46%|38%|37%| |High cost of living/Inflation|12%|13%|15%|16%|20%|17%|18%| |Economy in general|12%|13%|10%|16%|18%|12%|14%| |Federal budget deficit/Federal debt|3%|3%|3%|2%|2%|1%|1%| |Lack of money|1%|1%|1%|2%|1%|2%|1%| |Gap between rich and poor|1%|2%|2%|2%|2%|2%|1%| |Unemployment/Jobs|1%|1%|2%|1%|2%|2%|2%| |Taxes|1%|1%|1%|1%|1%|1%|1%| |Wage issues|1%|1%|1%||1%|1%|| |Fuel/Oil prices|1%||1%|2%|2%|3%|3%| |Recession||||1%|||1%| |Foreign Trade/Trade deficit||||--|--||--| |Corporate corruption||--||--|||| |NON-ECONOMIC PROBLEMS (NET)|67%|65%|70%|60%|61%|66%|66%| |The government/Poor leadership|20%|14%|21%|15%|14%|22%|20%| |Immigration|11%|10%|11%|8%|8%|6%|6%| |Unifying the country|4%|4%|6%|6%|4%|4%|5%| |Crime/Violence|3%|4%|4%|5%|4%|4%|4%| |Poverty/Hunger/Homelessness|3%|4%|5%|4%|4%|4%|3%| |Foreign policy/Foreign aid/Focus overseas|3%|1%|1%|1%|1%|1%|1%| |Lack of respect for each other|2%|3%|2%|2%|1%|3%|2%| |Race relations/Racism|2%|5%|5%|3%|2%|5%|6%| |Judicial system/Courts/Laws|2%|2%|2%|4%|2%|2%|4%| |Ethics/moral/religious/family decline|2%|4%|4%|3%|2%|3%|3%| |Healthcare|2%|3%|3%|2%|1%|2%|2%| |Situation with Russia|2%|1%|1%|1%|1%|1%| |Environment/Pollution/Climate change|2%|3%|3%|3%|4%|3%|3%| |Education|2%|2%|2%|3%|2%|1%|2%| |Elections/Election reform/Democracy|2%|2%|2%|4%|4%|4%|2%| |Abortion|2%|2%|1%|5%|3%|4%|5%| |Drugs|1%|1%|1%|1%|1%|1%|1%| |Situation with China|1%|1%|--||||| |Guns/Gun control|1%|2%|1%|2%|2%|1%|2%| |The media|1%|1%|1%|2%|1%|1%|1%| |Energy/Lack of energy sources|1%|||1%|2%|2%|1%| |National security|1%|1%|||1%||1%| |International issues, problems|1%|1%|||||| |Infrastructure|1%|||--||--|--| |Welfare|1%||1%||1%||| |Wars/War (nonspecific)/Fear of war|1%|1%|||1%||| |Police brutality|1%|1%||--||--|--| |Lack of military defense||||||--|| |School shootings|||1%||||1%| |Coronavirus/Diseases||1%||1%|1%||1%| |LGBT rights||1%|||||--| |Advancement of computers/technology||--|||--|--|--| |Care for the elderly/Medicare||--||||--|--| |Social Security||||||--|--| |Terrorism|||--|||--|--| |Children’s behavior/Way they are raised|||||*|--|--|
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 69 |
Capture
Research and polling firm Gallup conducts a longstanding survey of American attitudes towards important problems in the United States. It includes the following question:
**What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today...
Embed
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