Will US law deem Ethereum a security before Jan 1, 2030?

Metaculus
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10%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Ethereum is the second biggest cryptocurrency, with a market cap of approximately $200 billion.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler has said that many crypto tokens are securities, and in June 2023, the SEC charged both Coinbase and Binance with securities-related violations.

The SEC named 13 total crypto assets trading on and offered by Coinbase that it believes should be treated as stocks and bonds but remain unregistered. The agency also said Coinbase should have registered its staking program, a service that allowed investors to earn returns by staking their crypto tokens. (Politico)

Ethereum was not one of the 13 crypto assets named.

SEC Chair Gensler, at the time a professor at MIT, told hedge funds in 2018 that Ethereum was not a security. Gensler has declined to state whether ETH is a security in his official capacity.

The CFTC has implied ETH is a commodity and not a security.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts39

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10%
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Ethereum is the second biggest cryptocurrency, with a market cap of approximately $200 billion.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler has said that many crypto tokens are securities, and in June 2023, the SEC charged both Coinbase and Binance with...

Last updated: 2024-07-14
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 39

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