Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
25%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Irish neutrality is a cornerstone policy that has shaped the Republic of Ireland since the nation gained its independence in 1922. This policy is deeply ingrained in the Irish psyche and is anchored in the country's constitution, aiming to preserve national sovereignty, promote international peace, and avoid entanglements in international conflicts. During World War II, despite the immense global pressure, Ireland maintained its neutral stance, showcasing a persistent commitment to this policy. It's a stance that has given the small nation a distinct voice in international relations and a reputation as a peacekeeping nation under the auspices of the UN.

However, global geopolitics and regional stability concerns, particularly those in the wake of Russia's war on Ukraine, are challenging this long-standing policy, and Ireland's stance towards NATO has experienced a substantial shift. Facing the rising tensions and insecurity in Europe, the Irish government has found itself reassessing its traditionally neutral position. With escalating aggression from Russia, Ireland is drawn closer to NATO, viewing it as a platform for ensuring European security. This trend marks a significant divergence from historical norms and is stirring a lively debate domestically.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts35

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25%
Unlikely

Irish neutrality is a cornerstone policy that has shaped the Republic of Ireland since the nation gained its independence in 1922. This policy is deeply ingrained in the Irish psyche and is anchored in the country's constitution, aiming to preserve...

Last updated: 2024-06-17
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 35

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