Will the % of US employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026, due to AI or otherwise?
As The Economist reported in June 2023, the percent of US workers who are white-collar, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has been steadily rising from ~57% in 1985 to ~62% in 2022. Yet, as they write,
After astonishing breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, many people worry that they will end up on the economic scrapheap. Global Google searches for “is my job safe?” have doubled in recent months, as people fear that they will be replaced with large language models (llms). Some evidence suggests that widespread disruption is coming. In a recent paper Tyna Eloundou of Openai and colleagues say that “around 80% of the us workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of llms”.
The % in white-collar jobs was last below 60.0% briefly in 2007, and before that, in the late 1990s.
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