Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine, escalating the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2014. Subsequently, on 30 September 2022, Russia unilaterally declared the annexation of areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts. Martial law was introduced in Russia on 20 October 2022 but was implemented only in the annexed territories of Ukraine. Different levels of readiness or response were established in various regions, including those bordering Ukraine and annexed Crimea. On 23 June 2023, a rebellion by the Wagner Group, a private military company linked to the Russian government, occurred. The rebellion reportedly led to a decline of 9-14% in public trust towards Vladimir Putin, as reported by Meduza on 29 June. Notably, presidential elections are scheduled for March 2024, and under electoral law, they cannot be held during a period of martial law. This question aims to assess the likelihood of Putin declaring martial law within a specific timeframe.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts162

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1%
Exceptionally unlikely

On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine, escalating the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2014. Subsequently, on 30 September 2022, Russia unilaterally declared the annexation of areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts....

Last updated: 2024-04-30
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 162

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