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Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description #

On July 5, 2023, OpenAI announced a new initiative, Superalignment, focused on achieving scientific and technical breakthroughs to steer and control potentially superintelligent AI systems. OpenAI created a new team, co-led by Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike, and pledged 20% of its compute to the effort. OpenAI said:

Our goal is to solve the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years.

The core idea of OpenAI's approach is to "build a roughly human-level automated alignment researcher" and then to "use vast amounts of computer to scale our efforts, and iteratively align superintelligence."

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts397

Capture #

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Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

On July 5, 2023, OpenAI announced a new initiative, Superalignment, focused on achieving scientific and technical breakthroughs to steer and control potentially superintelligent AI systems. OpenAI created a new team, co-led by Ilya Sutskever and Jan...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 397

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