Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

Ukraine seeks tangible security guaranties to protect herself from Russia:

• In 1994, Britain, the US, Ukraine, and Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum, which guaranteed the security and territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine surrendering her nuclear weapons.

• The Memorandum failed to prevent the occupation of several Ukrainian territories by Russia in 2014.

• Since 2014, Ukraine has been actively seeking to become a NATO member, in hope that it will prevent further military aggression by Russia.

• In 2022, Russia started a large-scale military invasion of Ukraine. During the invasion, Russia has perpetrated a multitude of war crimes, forcing the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. According to legal scholars and official statements by several countries, Russia is perpetrating a genocide of Ukrainians as an ethnicity.

• Russian officials have several times threatened Ukraine with a nuclear strike (e.g. by Dmitrii Medvedev).

Ukrainian officials openly stated that a restoration of the Ukrainian nuclear program is the alternative to NATO membership:

• In 2021, Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Melnyk said that if Ukraine is not allowed to become a NATO member, Ukraine might have to reconsider its status as a non-nuclear weapon state to guarantee her security
• in 2022, President Zelenskyy said that without the promised security guarantees according to the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine may reconsider its nuclear status.

Ukraine has at least some prerequisites for developing nuclear weapons:

• a developed nuclear energy industry (Ukraine is the #7 in the world by nuclear energy generation)
• uranium ore deposits and processing facilities
• independent manufacturing of delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles.