Ukraine seeks tangible security guaranties to protect herself from Russia:
In 1994, Britain, the US, Ukraine, and Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum, which guaranteed the security and territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine surrendering her nuclear weapons.
The Memorandum failed to prevent the occupation of several Ukrainian territories by Russia in 2014.
Since 2014, Ukraine has been actively seeking to become a NATO member, in hope that it will prevent further military aggression by Russia.
In 2022, Russia started a large-scale military invasion of Ukraine. During the invasion, Russia has perpetrated a multitude of war crimes, forcing the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. According to legal scholars and official statements by several countries, Russia is perpetrating a genocide of Ukrainians as an ethnicity.
Russian officials have several times threatened Ukraine with a nuclear strike (e.g. by Dmitrii Medvedev).
Ukrainian officials openly stated that a restoration of the Ukrainian nuclear program is the alternative to NATO membership:
Ukraine has at least some prerequisites for developing nuclear weapons:
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 334 |
Ukraine seeks tangible security guaranties to protect herself from Russia:
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