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Turkey has been applying to join the European Union's predecessor since 1987, and recognized as a Candidate in 1999. However, progress has stalled, and the EU suspended negotiations in 2019.
More recently, Turkey's president Erdogan has linked Sweden's NATO application to join NATO to Turkey's application to join the EU, claiming that the EU should "clear a path" for Turkey to join before Turkey approves Sweden's application.
Given NATO's (which includes most of EU's member states) desire to have Sweden join NATO since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the shifting geopolitical landscape for both the EU and Turkey since the start of that war, the EU may consider restarting the negotiations on Turkey's EU ascension.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
| Platform | Metaculus |
| Number of forecasts | 70 |
Turkey has been applying to join the European Union's predecessor since 1987, and recognized as a Candidate in 1999. However, progress has stalled, and the EU suspended negotiations in 2019.
More recently, Turkey's president Erdogan has linked...