Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
10%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

CNEOS 2014-01-08, also known as Interstellar Meteor 1 (IM1), crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014.

Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb and a student, Amir Siraj, published a preprint which argued—citing a US Department of Defense memo—that the object originated outside the solar system.

we identify the ∼0.45m meteor detected at 2014-01-08 17:05:34 UTC as originating from an unbound hyperbolic orbit with 99.999% confidence. The U.S. Department of Defense has since verified that "the velocity estimate reported to NASA is sufficiently accurate to indicate an interstellar trajectory."

If Loeb and Siraj are correct, then IM1 is the first interstellar object scientifically known to impact the earth. Other scientists have disputed their conclusions.

Loeb had previously suggested in his book Extraterrestrial that a 2017 interstellar object known ‘Oumuamua’ as was "interstellar technology built by aliens", though other scientists have proposed alternative explanations for Omuamua's "strange behavior."

In 2023, Loeb launched an expedition to recover portions of IM1, stating his belief that not only may the object be interstellar, but that it could be alien technology. Using a massive magnetic sled to scrape the seabed, Loeb's expedition found 50 spherules which Loeb believes are portions of IM1. Loeb says these spherules are now being analyzed by "three laboratories in UC Berkeley, Harvard and the Bruker Corporation in Germany."

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CNEOS 2014-01-08, also known as Interstellar Meteor 1 (IM1), crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014.

Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb and a student, Amir Siraj, published a preprint which argued—citing a US Department of...

Last updated: 2024-04-18
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 50

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