Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
3%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, describes a new material known as LK-99 which the authors claim exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. The veracity of the results are uncertain, but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it could revolutionize the electronics industry.

Previous efforts in high-temperature superconductivity have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 gigapascals (GPa) and below 138 Kelvin (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent research has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim has been called into question.

<img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg" alt="Timeline of Superconductivity"> *<a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg">PJRay</a>, <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0">CC BY-SA 4.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons (note that this figure may contain outdated information or research that has not been replicated, see the [file description](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg) for key)*

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A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, describes a new material known as LK-99 which the authors claim exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. The veracity of the results are uncertain, but if a room...

Last updated: 2024-04-18
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 169

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