Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, has been involved in an array of legal battles post his presidency. Currently facing three indictments with the prospect of a fourth, his legal circumstances have sparked curiosity about the possible outcomes.

Assessing the Odds

Estimating the odds of a jury reaching a guilty verdict in at least one of Trump's cases can be complex. Historically, federal conviction rates in the U.S have been relatively high, often surpassing 90%. However, this figure doesn't necessarily imply the same odds for Trump's case. The likelihood of a guilty verdict depends heavily on the evidence, the nature of the crimes, the lawyers involved, the jury's composition, and public opinion, among other factors.

The "Stealth Juror" Scenario

One of the factors complicating the trial outcome is the possibility of a 'stealth juror'. In this context, a stealth juror refers to a passionate Trump supporter (who didn't vote in 2016 and 2020 for whatever reasons) pretending to be neutral who, despite being obliged to judge impartially, could be biased in their judgement. If at least one juror refuses to agree with the others, it could lead to a hung jury, which may complicate the process further.

U.S courts use a process called voir dire to select impartial jurors. While this process is usually effective, it is not foolproof. A passionate supporter could potentially hide their bias, impacting the verdict. However, such a scenario is relatively rare and challenging to pull off. Furthermore, even if a stealth juror manages to cause a hung jury in one case, the likelihood of this happening consistently across multiple trials is low.

Besides backing Trump, a juror could have other motivations for opposing a guilty verdict in a federal trial against a former president.