Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?

Accurate and timely weather forecasting has become increasingly important as climate change progresses. In recent years, satellite constellations have emerged, presenting the possibility of enhancing weather prediction. These constellations, comprising numerous small satellites, could provide more frequent updates and cover larger areas of the Earth, thereby potentially improving the precision and timeliness of weather forecasts.

However, several challenges exist, including technological hurdles, data management complexities, and regulatory issues. The improvement of weather forecasts could affect disaster management, agriculture, and other sectors dependent on accurate weather predictions.

<img src="https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/ps2png-worker-commands-6f79cf895c-tbs9w-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-FAIoiG.jpeg" alt="ECMWF 500hPa Geopotential Height Accuracy Chart">

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provides public scores for its forecasts, including the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) for 500 hPa height forecasts (see chart). In describing the 500 hPa (or 500 mb) height a resource from the University of Arizona says:

The 500 mb pattern can also be used to locate where surface storms and precipitation are most likely to be occurring. Surface storms and precipitation are most often found over areas downstream of 500 mb troughs (following the horizontal wind direction from a trough to a ridge). The reason for this is that rising air motion is forced in this part of the flow pattern. Rising motion means that surface air is forced to move upward into the atmosphere. Clouds and precipitation develop where air rises. Thus, we try to use weather maps to pick out areas where air is forced to rise upward, as these are places where precipitation may be occurring. Conversely, sinking air motion is forced over areas downstream of ridges. Clouds do not develop where air is sinking. Underneath these areas fair weather is most likely. By looking at a 500 mb map, you should be able to distinguish where precipitation is most likely and where fair weather is most likely.

Additionally, according to information on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website:

The 500 millibar constant pressure charts is the mainstay of the upper air charts. If meteorologists could only look at one chart, the 500 mb level chart would, by far, be the top choice.