Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

A tweet by @blader has sparked a debate about whether the upcoming GPT-5 will be considered an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or not:

i have been told that gpt5 is scheduled to complete training this december and that openai expects it to achieve agi.

which means we will all hotly debate as to whether it actually achieves agi.

which means it will

AGI is often described as an autonomous system that surpasses human capabilities in the majority of economically valuable tasks.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts187

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Resizable preview:
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

A tweet by @blader has sparked a debate about whether the upcoming GPT-5 will be considered an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or not:

i have been told that gpt5 is scheduled to complete training this december and that openai expects it to...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 187

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