Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?
The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) has been collecting data on what American students know and can do since 1969. Known as "The Nation's Report Card," the NAEP administers a series of assessments, including data on reading and math performance for 4th, 8th, and 12th grades.
2022 NAEP results for 4th and 8th graders showed drops compared to 2019, more than experts expected. The declines were widespread across almost all states and districts, and all performance bands.
Before COVID, gaps between top and bottom students were growing. The 2022 results suggest this continued, with lower-performing students losing more ground.
The 2024 NAEP tests will happen Winter 2024. Results come out about a year later. This prediction will resolve in late 2025 when all of the 2024 results are published.
|Number of forecasts||28|
<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-18402" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />