Will an East African Federation exist and govern before 2040?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
15%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

This question and the background material below are copied from a similar question. While that version asks about the ratification of an agreement to form the East African Federation it may be that such an agreement is ratified without a functional East African Federation actually being formed. Or alternatively, an East African Federation could be formed by the merger of two countries and not satisfy the three country requirement of the other question.

The East African Federation (Swahili: Shirikisho la Afrika Mashariki) is a proposed political union of the seven sovereign states of the East African Community – Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda – as a single federated sovereign state. The idea of this Federation has existed since the early 1960s, but has not yet come to fruition for a variety of reasons. In September 2018, a committee was formed to begin the process of drafting a regional constitution, and a draft constitution for the confederation was set to be written by the end of 2021 with its implementation by 2023; however, it is likely that this deadline will be missed.

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IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts18

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15%
Unlikely

*This question and the background material below are copied from a similar question. While that version asks about the ratification of an agreement to form the East African Federation it may be that such an agreement is ratified without a functional...

Last updated: 2024-04-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 18

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