Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
33%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

A CBDC is a digital currency issued by a country's central bank. They are similar to cash, but they exist only in digital form. CBDCs can be used for both retail and wholesale payments. Retail CBDCs are designed for use by individuals and businesses. They can be used to make payments for goods and services, just like cash. Whereas wholesale CBDCs are designed for use by financial institutions to settle payments between banks and other financial institutions.

The Federal Reserve’s FedNow system went live on July 20th, 2023 to replace the Fedwire system, and is to all intents and purposes a wholesale CBDC: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230720a.htm

CBDCs offer a number of potential benefits, such as faster and cheaper payments compared to traditional payment methods, such as checks and wire transfers. They also claim to increase financial inclusion by making it easier for people to access and use digital money. CBDCs can also reduce risk of fraud by providing a more secure and transparent way to make payments.

However, there are also some challenges associated with CBDCs, such as privacy concerns as all transactions are recorded on a central ledger. This raises all kinds of ethical, and security issues. That’s because the technology behind CBDCs will enable every transaction to potentially be monitored and controlled in real-time by the governments and central banks that issue them. As of March 2023, over 90 central banks are exploring the possibility of issuing CBDCs, and a number of them have already launched pilot projects. This suggests that there is a growing consensus among central banks that CBDCs have the potential to improve the efficiency and security of the financial system.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts31

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33%
Unlikely

A CBDC is a digital currency issued by a country's central bank. They are similar to cash, but they exist only in digital form. CBDCs can be used for both retail and wholesale payments. Retail CBDCs are designed for use by individuals and businesses....

Last updated: 2024-05-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 31

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