Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has a section known as the "Disqualification Clause" or Section 3, which may disqualify individuals from holding federal or state office if they have "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [U.S.], or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof." Given the events surrounding the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, this section has become a subject of considerable debate with respect to former President Donald Trump's eligibility to run for federal office again.

In New Hampshire, Bryant "Corky" Messner, an attorney who ran for U.S. Senate in 2020 with Trump's endorsement, has expressed intentions to file a legal challenge questioning Trump's 2024 candidacy under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The Republican Secretary of State of New Hampshire, David Scanlan, while not actively seeking to remove any candidates, has stated that he will seek legal advice on the issue. Additionally, Michigan’s Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has indicated that she will seek a legal opinion on this matter. Voters have also filed lawsuits in Florida and Michigan on the issue. Legal battles are widely expected, and these disputes might reach the U.S. Supreme Court.

This question focuses on whether these and similar ongoing discussions and legal challenges will result in Donald Trump being removed from the general election ballot of any state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment by November 5, 2024, the date of the presidential election.

Note: This question focuses on removal from a general election ballot. Another question focuses on Trump's removal from a primary ballot.

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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts310

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1%
Exceptionally unlikely

The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has a section known as the "Disqualification Clause" or Section 3, which may disqualify individuals from holding federal or state office if they have "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [U.S..

Last updated: 2024-05-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 310

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