Ukraine's de jure territory includes all of Crimea plus the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. While the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 was illegitimate, the peninsula is not included in this question. The purpose of this question is to create a conditional pair with a proposed one about Donald Trump being US president, to measure the impact of a Trump presidency on the likelihood of a Ukrainian defeat against the aggressor.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
| Platform | Metaculus |
| Number of forecasts | 158 |
Ukraine's de jure territory includes all of Crimea plus the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. While the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 was illegitimate, the peninsula is not included in this question. The purpose of this...
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