Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
10%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Recent analyses have suggested that China is facing a growing water scarcity crisis that may have a significant impact on energy production, food availability, and access to domestic fresh water supplies. Factors leading to this impending catastrophe include water-intensive practices of multinational corporations operating in China, inefficient manufacturing, construction, and agriculture processes, and the impact of climate change. The Chinese government is making every effort to mitigate the crisis through water imports and desalination. The PRC has also recently initiated projects to transfer water from water-rich to water-scarce areas. One example is the South-North Water Diversion Project, which aims to alleviate shortages in the north. The government believes the project's long-term benefits will go some way to alleviating the problem, but the project won't be fully complete until at least 2050.

In the meantime if there’s a risk of civil unrest as a result of widespread water shortages, one drastic solution might be to encroach into Russian territory to obtain access to Lake Baikal as it contains around 20% of the world’s fresh water.

The forecasting curation organization Foresight Bureau explores this possibility in more detail in their video: “Will China occupy a region of Russia by 2045?”

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★★★☆☆
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Number of forecasts97

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Recent analyses have suggested that China is facing a growing water scarcity crisis that may have a significant impact on energy production, food availability, and access to domestic fresh water supplies. Factors leading to this impending catastrophe...

Last updated: 2024-07-14
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 97

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