Will Turkey recognize the Armenian genocide before 2050?

Many historians and scholars outside Turkey, and an increasing number of Turkish scholars, believe that the mass murder of one million Armenians during death marches to the Syrian Desert and the forced Islamization of women and children committed by the Ottoman Empire from 1915 to 1923 constituted genocide. For instance, in 1997, the International Association of Genocide Scholars (IAGS) passed a resolution unanimously recognizing the Ottoman massacres of Armenians as genocide.

As of 2023, governments and parliaments of 34 countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Russia, and the United States, have formally recognized the Armenian genocide. Three countries — Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan — deny that there was an Armenian genocide.

The Turkish government maintains that the mass deportation of Armenians was a legitimate action to combat an existential threat to the empire but that there was no intention to exterminate the Armenian people. Türkiye objects to presenting the "events of 1915" as "genocide," describing them as "a tragedy in which both sides suffered casualties". However, since 2014, Prime Minister and then President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has expressed condolences to the descendants of Armenians who lost their lives in 1915 on April 24—the Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day.

Will the Turkish government officially recognize the "events of 1915" as a genocide before 2050?