Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

★★★☆☆

Very unlikely

Yes

Question description #

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in an escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War which began in 2014. Before the invasion, Russian troops massed near Ukraine's borders, as Russian officials denied plans to attack. Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, announced a "special military operation" to support the Russian-backed breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, whose paramilitary forces were fighting Ukraine in the Donbas conflict.

By April 2022, Russian troops retreated from the northern front. Russia had captured Kherson in March and Mariupol in May after a destructive siege. In April, Russia launched a renewed offensive in the Donbas. Russian forces continued to bomb military and civilian targets far from the front line, including the energy grid through the winter. In late 2022, Ukraine launched counteroffensives in the south and east. Soon after, Russia announced the illegal annexation of four partly-occupied regions. In November, Ukraine retook parts of Kherson Oblast, including Kherson itself. In June 2023, Ukraine launched another counteroffensive in the southeast.

By September 2023, Ukrainian forces were slowly retaking the villages and towns in the oblasts and surrounding areas day by day with help from Western countries.

Indicators #

Indicator	Value
Stars	★★★☆☆
Platform	Metaculus
Number of forecasts	160