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Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
10%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Note: This question is a looser operationalization of this other question.

As large language models (LLMs) become widely adopted and increasingly powerful, AI and cybersecurity experts are concerned that LLMs could potentially be used in the execution of cyberattacks and the production of viruses and worms.

This question asks whether a major cyberattack or significant virus or worm that uses LLMs will arise before 2025.

For the purpose of this question, a cyberattack, worm, or virus, will be considered major if any of the below scenarios occur as a result:

  • At least one person is killed

  • There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage

  • a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts292

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Note: This question is a looser operationalization of this other question.

As large language models (LLMs) become widely adopted and increasingly powerful, AI and cybersecurity experts are concerned that LLMs could potentially be used in the...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 292

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