When will Russia have no laws banning “LGBT propaganda”?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆

Question description

Russian laws prohibiting “LGBT propaganda” have been widely criticized by human rights groups and international organizations as discriminatory, homophobic and violating freedom of expression and information.

These laws were first put into effect in 2013, which prohibits the promotion of homosexuality among persons under the age of 18. In 2022, the laws were expanded to cover all adults as well, prohibiting propaganda or “glorification” of LGBTIQ+ relationships, public expression of non-heterosexual orientation or the assumption that they are “normal“, as well as prohibiting the dissemination of information and the commission of public actions that “may arouse interest to a sex change”. The laws have also tightened penalties for violating them, ranging from fines to imprisonment and deportation of foreigners.

The laws have been used to persecute LGBTIQ+ activists, journalists, educators, artists and ordinary citizens who express their views or identity. The laws also contributed to the creation of an atmosphere of fear and hostility towards LGBTIQ+ representatives in Russia, which led to an increase in violence, hate crimes and discrimination. The laws have been challenged in various courts and forums, such as the European Court of Human Rights and the UN Human Rights Committee, which have ruled that they are incompatible with international human rights standards and obligations.

However, Russia refused to comply with these regulations and continued to enforce and protect its laws. Despite widespread condemnation and pressure from the international community, Russia has shown no signs of willingness to repeal its laws prohibiting “LGBT propaganda.” On the contrary, Russia portrays itself as a defender of “traditional values” and a bulwark against “Western decadence” and "Satanism". Russia has also accused its critics of interfering in its internal affairs and violating its sovereignty. Therefore, it is unclear when Russia will change its position and respect the rights and dignity of LGBTIQ+ people.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts28

Capture

Resizable preview:

Russian laws prohibiting “LGBT propaganda” have been widely criticized by human rights groups and international organizations as discriminatory, homophobic and violating freedom of expression and information.

These laws were first put into effect in...

Last updated: 2024-05-01
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 28

Embed

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-19050" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />