How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?

According to Wikipedia:

The Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian mathematical geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction. The system is a thirteen-point checklist that assesses the situation of the country and political system ahead of a presidential election. When five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election. Some of the items on the checklist involve qualitative judgment, and therefore the reliability of this system relies heavily on the knowledge and analytical skill of whoever attempts to apply it. Using the system, Lichtman correctly predicted the outcomes of nine presidential elections from 1984 to 2020, with the sole exception of the 2000 election.

The 2000 election was an incredibly close and heavily disputed election that was decided by the Supreme Court stopping a Florida recount.

These are the defined Keys to the White House:

1. <a>Midterm gains:</a> After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

2. <a>No primary contest:</a> The incumbent party nominee wins at least two-thirds of the total delegate vote on the first ballot at the nominating convention. If the incumbent party nominee meets this threshold, the key can still turn false when there are deep and vocal party divisions, such as Hubert Humphrey's nomination by the Democrats in 1968.

3. <a>Incumbent seeking re-election:</a> The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

4. <a>No third party:</a> There are no third party candidates polling over 10%.

5. <a>Strong short-term economy:</a> There is not a widespread perception by the public that the economy is in a recession during the election campaign. (Past elections where this key was false with percent of the public believing there is a recession: 1992 (~68%), 2008 (76%), 2020 (71%)).

6. <a>Strong long-term economy:</a> Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7. <a>Major policy change:</a> The incumbent president redirects the course of government or enacts a major policy change that has broad effects on the country's commerce, welfare, or outlook. It does not matter whether the change is popular with the public. (e.g., Obama's Affordable Care Act, Abraham Lincoln abolishing slavery, Franklin D. Roosevelt enacting the New Deal, Reagan enacted major cuts in taxes and social spending, Trump's major tax reforms).

8. <a>No social unrest:</a> There is no widespread national violent unrest that is either sustained or leaves critical issues unresolved by the time of the election campaign, which makes the voters worry that the fabric of the nation is coming apart. (e.g., the Civil War, the racial and anti-war riots of 1968, the George Floyd protests of 2020).

9. <a>No scandal:</a> The incumbent administration is untainted by a major bipartisan scandal. (e.g., Watergate during Nixon's second term, Bill Clinton being impeached for lying about his affair with Monica Lewinsky, Trump being impeached for pressuring Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden).

10. <a>No foreign/military failure:</a> The incumbent administration suffers no major foreign or military disaster that is perceived to undermine the standing of the United States and erode trust in the president's leadership. (e.g., Bay of Pigs invasion, the Vietnam War, Iran hostage crisis, the 9/11 attacks & mounting US casualties in Iraq, the unresolved military conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2008).

11. <a>Major foreign/military success:</a> The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs that improves the prestige and interests of the United States. (e.g., formation of NATO under Harry S. Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower negotiating an end to the Korean War, John F. Kennedy's handing of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the defeat of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq under George W. Bush, the killing of Osama bin Laden under Barack Obama).

12. <a>Charismatic incumbent:</a> The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. For charismatic: (e.g., James G. Blaine, William Jennings Bryan, Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama during his 2008 campaign) (Donald Trump was not counted because he "had an intense appeal with only a narrow slice of the electorate") For national hero: (e.g., Ulysses Grant, Dwight Eisenhower).

13. <a>Uncharismatic challenger:</a> The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Lichtman's past prediction history can be found here.