Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

Holden Karnofsky, in Nearcast-based "deployment problem" analysis, suggests establishing an organization, which he calls the IAIA: an organization, which could range from a private nonprofit to a treaty-backed international agency, that tracks transformative AI projects and takes actions to censure or shut down dangerous ones.

This IAIA organization would play a similar role to that which the IAEA plays in nuclear weapons regulation. The IAEA enforces nuclear weapons restrictions through on-site inspections, monitoring, and analysis of environmental samples, as well as by providing technical assistance and promoting transparency.