Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel.

According to Foreign Policy:

Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF said approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the 2014 and 2021 crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, using paragliders among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, “We are at war,” and launched Operation Iron Swords, conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already claimed 232 lives in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.

Some reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The Wall Street Journal reported:

Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.

Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.

However, Iran has denied that it was involved and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated:

In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead.

While Israel does not publicly confirm that it has nuclear weapons, based on US intelligence the Federation of American Scientists estimates that Israel has 90 nuclear warheads.