Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election?

The next Australian Federal Election is expected between August 2024 and May 2025. A typical election is for every seat in the lower house — the House of Representatives — and half the seats in the upper house — the Senate. This question concerns the seat of Sturt, a lower house seat in South Australia.

Sturt is one of the most marginal seats currently held by the Liberal Party, with a margin of just 0.5%. The incumbent, James Stevens, is in his second term, having succeeded Christopher Pyne at the 2019 election. The seat has been held by the Liberal party since 1972. The ABC provides an overview here from the last election. Although Labor has never won the seat, the very small margin suggests that this is nonetheless a possibility.