On October 7, 2023, Palestinian militants led by Hamas launched a surprise offensive against Israeli forces surrounding the Gaza strip, occupying considerable territory inside internationally-recognized Israeli borders. Israeli counterattacks in the early days of the war expelled the Palestinian fighters from most of the territory they captured. However, Israeli leadership has insisted on launching a ground offensive into the Gaza strip in order to fully eliminate Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups operating in the territory.
As of October 24, 2023, Israel's ground offensive has been delayed multiple times. Israeli officials have argued that the country's armed forces required additional time to plan rescues of hostages, retrain troops, gain intelligence on Palestinian military operations/defense plans, and conduct artillery and airstrike preparation. Nonetheless, this has raised questions regarding whether or not Israel is capable of capturing the Gaza strip using conventional means with acceptable losses. While Israel officially denies having nuclear weapons, it is widely believed to possess them, given information leaks and statements by Israeli officials. Moreover, Israeli officials have suggested that the country could use nuclear weapons against Hamas if necessary, or if it is attacked by external actors such as Hezbollah or Iran.
Indicator | Value |
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Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 800 |
On October 7, 2023, Palestinian militants led by Hamas launched a surprise offensive against Israeli forces surrounding the Gaza strip, occupying considerable territory inside internationally-recognized Israeli borders. Israeli counterattacks in the...
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