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Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Since 2017 there has been news of the US government investigating UFOs/UAPs, recovering crashed vehicles, and recovering alien bodies. The US may soon pass a “UAP Disclosure Act” that would exercise eminent domain of any technology recovered from "biologics" or “non-human intelligence.” This was a notable change of terminology from “extraterrestrial” to allow for beings that originate or currently reside on Earth. 1

There is additionally more evidence being found in the archaeological record that ancient ancestors of homo sapiens may have built tools and shelters. 2

Given the background of these recent events, what is the probability that evidence will be presented and accepted for the existence of a non-human intelligence on Earth at the present or sometime in the past?

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts127

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Since 2017 there has been news of the US government investigating UFOs/UAPs, recovering crashed vehicles, and recovering alien bodies. The US may soon pass a “UAP Disclosure Act” that would exercise eminent domain of any technology recovered from...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 127

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