[Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In 2023 Ukraine [commenced a counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive), though as of October 30, 2023, [Ukraine's gains have been modest](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-counteroffensive-has-been-slow-but-western-support-remains-strong--even-with-new-war-in-middle-east-215707295.html), and it  remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.

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Indicator	Value
Stars	★★★☆☆
Platform	Metaculus
Number of forecasts	301

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

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