Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?

On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a music festival, and over 200 hostages were abducted and taken into the Gaza Strip.

The next day on October 8th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war. Israel responded by bombing Gaza dropping 6,000 bombs in the first 6 days, and then a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in late October.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has accused both sides of war crimes.

CAIRO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Wednesday war crimes had been committed by both Israel and Hamas in the conflict that erupted just over a month ago.

"The atrocities perpetrated by Palestinian armed groups on 7 October were heinous, they were war crimes - as is the continued holding of hostages," Volker Turk said at the Rafah crossing in Egypt on the border with Gaza.

"The collective punishment by Israel of Palestinian civilians is also a war crime, as is unlawful forcible evacuation of civilians," he added.

The International Criminal Court, headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands, is an independent judicial institution empowered to prosecute individuals for international crimes, such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. It is distinct from the United Nations and does not possess universal jurisdiction, relying instead on the ratification of the Rome Statute by individual states, which confers the Court's jurisdiction. Israel is not a member state of the ICC, but the ICC's top prosecutor has claimed jurisdiction over any war crimes carrier out in the Gaza conflict, writing

My office has ongoing jurisdiction in relation to any alleged crimes committed on the territory of the State of Palestine by any party. This includes jurisdiction over current events in Gaza and in the West Bank.

Israel has clear obligations in relation to its war with Hamas: not just moral obligations, but legal obligations that it has to comply with the laws of armed conflict. These laws are clearly outlined in the Rome statute and the Geneva conventions.

On November 16, 2023, South Africa referred Israel to the ICC. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said:

“As South Africa we have accordingly, together with many other countries across the world, referred this whole Israeli government action to the International Criminal Court," Ramaphosa said Wednesday during a state visit to Qatar.

“We have put through a referral because we believe that war crimes are being committed there. And of course we do not condone the actions that were taken by Hamas earlier, but similarly we condemn the actions that are currently underway and believe that they warrant an investigation by the ICC,” he added.