Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

Although large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party, electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since 1848.

The most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts94

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Resizable preview:
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Although large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party, electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a...

Last updated: 2024-07-14
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 94

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