Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?

Metaculus
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> 99%
Virtually certain
Yes

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The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is RESP-NET, which it describes as follows:

The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as COVID-NET, RSV-NET, and FluSurv-NET, respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.

The underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at this link.

In its Respiratory Disease Season Outlook for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a "tripledemic" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The RESP-NET figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, coinciding with the maximum rate for flu and less than a month from the maximum rate for RSV which occurred during the week ending November 12, 2022, and also less than a month from the maximum rate for COVID which occurred on the week ending December 31, 2022.

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> 99%
Virtually certain

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is RESP-NET, which it...

Last updated: 2024-04-28
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 222

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