Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
33%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Relations between Morocco and Algeria have historically been rocky. A brief war was fought in the early 1960s over the border delineation, and Morocco has been fighting a low-intensity conflict with the Algeria-backed Sahrawi Republic for control of the Western Sahara since the 1970s. Political tension in 2021 caused the two countries to break off diplomatic relations,, leading to some speculation about a potential war.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts44

Capture

Resizable preview:
33%
Unlikely

Relations between Morocco and Algeria have historically been rocky. A brief war was fought in the early 1960s over the border delineation, and Morocco has been fighting a low-intensity conflict with the Algeria-backed Sahrawi Republic for control of...

Last updated: 2024-04-18
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 44

Embed

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-20370" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />