MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
30%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

In 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fought a border clash that led to dozens of deaths on both sides. This was the second time in as many years that the two countries had fought an armed conflict regarding the border. Although a peace deal was signed in late 2022, there remains fears about another, potentially larger round of hostilities.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts32

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
30%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

In 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fought a border clash that led to dozens of deaths on both sides. This was the second time in as many years that the two countries had fought an armed conflict regarding the border. Although a peace deal was signed...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 32

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-20371" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview