Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

Scope

This is the question of whether Trump will hold supreme executive power in the United States rather than a specific political office. At the moment, the President is granted that power by the constitution. However, Caesar and Napoleon both created the role of Emperor for themselves, and Hitler created the role of Führer. If such a role were to be created in the United States, its occupant would have supreme executive power even if the position was not called "President".

Background

Robert Kagan recently wrote an article noting similarities to pre-WWII Germany in popular sentiment and political speech, worrying that Trump would become a dictator. In April, the movie studio A24 is releasing the movie "Civil War", featuring a three-term US President.

Trump has said that if elected, he'll be a dictator "only on day one" in order to close the southern border and expand oil drilling.

In 2020, he said, "We are going to win four more years, and then after that, we’ll go for another four years because they spied on my campaign. We should get a redo of four years."

However, more recently, Trump responded to DeSantis' statement that people should vote for DeSantis because he's elegible for eight years in the White House, unlike Trump: "When somebody says eight years, we need eight years, no. In six months to a year, many of the problems, almost all of the problems that you and I have just spoken about will be solved. Anybody that says they need eight years, you don’t want that person." One might read that as saying Trump wouldn't try to obtain a third term, but one also might read that as simply downplaying his opponent's abilities.

The 22nd Amendment prohibits people from being elected to the office of President more than twice. The 12th Amendment says, "no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States." One might think that a twice-elected president would be "ineligible" for the role of Vice President, but because "eligibility" refers to Article II, Section 1, Clause 5, which specifically address whether a person is "eligible to the Office of the President," it has been argued that a twice-elected president could subsequently run as Vice President and then become President if the President steps down, is removed from power, or dies.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts118

Capture

Resizable preview:
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Scope

This is the question of whether Trump will hold supreme executive power in the United States rather than a specific political office. At the moment, the President is granted that power by the constitution. However, Caesar and Napoleon both...

Last updated: 2024-04-18
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 118

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