If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?
Question description
The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from incumbents like Nvidia, and not from Chinese companies.
If a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese labs start using their chips in frontier model training runs, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by export controls.
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 45 |
Capture
The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips...
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