Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?

In late February and March 2014, following the Euromaidan uprising and removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, thinly disguised Russian military and paramilitary forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in the far South of Ukraine and of most of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in its East, leading to a protracted conflict.

In February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale conventional invasion of Ukraine. One of its first objectives was to seize the band of territory in Ukraine's southeast, between the Azov Sea and the Dnipro river, which connects Crimea in the south and Donetsk and Luhansk in the East.

Through the Spring and Summer of 2022, Ukraine achieved a series of counteroffensive victories and expelled Russian forces from a large area of the country. In September, Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), in his programmatic article on Ukraine’s coming campaign of 2023, called Crimea the "center of gravity of the enemy" and advised planning operations to seize it. Removing the Russian protective belt around the peninsula would be the first step towards achieving this goal. If executed simultaneously with destroying the Crimean bridge near Kerch it would cut off Crimea from supplies by land. Already in August, Arestovych, an advisor to president Zelensky, had floated the idea of an offensive on Melitopol, a key transportation hub on the land bridge, and opined that its success would collapse the entire Russian frontline.

In November 2022, with their supply lines in serious danger from Ukrainian artillery, the Russian occupiers fled Kherson for the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro, leaving the southeastern land bridge as the obvious next objective. Several Russian military bloggers predicted a land bridge offensive, with variations in timing, possible tactics and the exact direction of attack, e.g. Dimitriev, MIG, Moscow Calling, Nesmiyan and Saponkov.

On the Ukrainian side, the New York Times cited "hints from the troops on the ground and volunteers close to them" that preparations for such an offensive were in the works. Russian forces were said to be aware of the danger and to have been reinforcing their units and fortifying their lines in the Southeast for some time.

There is some flexibility with the direction of the offensive. Ukraine can strike in the east, towards Mariupol, in the center, towards Berdyansk or Melitopol (the most discussed option), or even in the west, from the newly captured Kherson towards Henichesk. Cutting the land bridge in two could be a first step to reoccupying it entirely, leaving Russia with no more territory than it started with, and potentially bringing the war closer to its termination.

The Ukrainian offensive began in June 2022, but as of December 2023, it does not appear close to severing the land bridge, and in fact there are significant doubts about its chances of success. Even so, Ukraine will still get F-16s and other weapon systems, and Zelenzky appears determined to keep fighting, despite political difficulties for providing military aid.