MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
16%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the pancreas produces little or no insulin, resulting in elevated blood sugar levels. Current standards of care involve insulin therapy and blood glucose monitoring but do not cure the underlying condition.

Potential cures in development include cell therapies to restore insulin-producing cells, gene therapies to modulate the immune system, and approaches to encapsulate therapeutic cells. Several clinical trials are underway exploring these methods, with the goal of restoring natural insulin production without ongoing treatment.

While progress has been made, an FDA-approved therapy definitively meeting the criteria for a cure remains elusive as of March 2024. This question asks whether such a curative treatment will cross that milestone by the beginning of 2032.

References:

  • Stat News: Two type 1 diabetes patients now freed from insulin shots with cell therapy, Vertex reports
  • Medscape: Beta Cells From Stem Cells: Nearing a Cure for Type 1 Diabetes
  • UBC: Stem cell-based treatment controls blood sugar in people with Type 1 diabetes
  • Diabetes UK: Arthritis drug could offer immunotherapy hope type 1 diabetes
  • The Telegraph: Cure for type 1 diabetes 'on horizon' after ground-breaking new treatment
  • Medical News Today: FDA approves first cellular therapy for type 1 diabetes: What does it do?
  • ClinicalTrials gov: A Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy Study of VX-880 in Participants With Type 1 Diabetes
  • ClinicalTrials gov: An Open-Label, FIH Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of VCTX211 Combination Product in Subjects With T1D

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts16

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032?
16%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the pancreas produces little or no insulin, resulting in elevated blood sugar levels. Current standards of care involve insulin therapy and blood glucose monitoring but do not cure the underlying...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 16

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-20709" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview