Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
37%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

After the OpenAI board temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, Reuters reported the following:

Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

. . .

After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts732

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37%
Unlikely

After the OpenAI board temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous...

Last updated: 2024-04-18
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 732

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