MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993, following a lengthy war for independence. Independence was followed by a major war between the two nations in 1998 and ongoing conflict until the two sides announced a peace declaration in 2018.

However, in October of 2023 the Ethiopian president raised concerns of a renewal of conflict when he discussed the importance of landlocked Ethiopia securing access to a port. According to Africanews:

In a televised speech on October 13, Abiy said that landlocked Ethiopia "is a nation whose existence is tied to the Red Sea", a key waterway for global trade.

He said Africa's second most populous country needed access to a port, adding: "If we plan to live together in peace, we have to find a way to mutually share with each other in a balanced manner."

Since then, Abiy has sought to alleviate regional fears, telling a military parade two weeks later that "Ethiopia will not pursue its interests through war. We are committed to mutual interest through dialogue and negotiation."

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts701

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?
3%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993, following a lengthy war for independence. Independence was followed by a major war between the two nations in 1998) and ongoing conflict until the two sides announced a peace declaration in 2018..

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 701

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-20770" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview