Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
7%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

Ali Khamenei has been Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989. His predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader of Iran, had formally selected a successor in 1985, four years before his death in 1989. However, after falling out with his chosen successor he selected Ali Khamenei in 1989. Ali Khamenei has yet to publicly name a successor.

In late 2022 and early 2023, large scale protests and unrest took place in Iran, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after she was arrested for violating the hijab law. The protests had largely ended after the spring of 2023.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts753

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Resizable preview:
7%
Very unlikely

Ali Khamenei has been Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989. His predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader of Iran, had formally selected a successor in 1985, four years before his death in 1989. However, after falling out with his chosen...

Last updated: 2024-05-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 753

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